Thursday, January 03, 2008

2008 Predictions

Prognosticating is fun!

  • The "casual/kiddie" mmorpgs (Webkinz, Club Penguin, Maple Story, Habbo Hotel, etc) will continue to eat everyone's lunch without much notice/investment from the traditional mmorpg companies. Media/Entertainment companies (MTV, Disney, etc) will continue to be the big backers. Sony will attempt to get into the market, fusing the content of their movie and television catalog with the experience of their online entertainment division.
  • Warhammer Online will underperform, regardless of whether it launches in spring as planned or it slips to later in the year. Age of Conan will suffer a similar fate (to a lesser degree due to lower expectations). In both cases it will be due to their genre. The market for gritty, dark fantasy is just not that large. And furthermore, as mmorpgs, they depend on the even smaller market segment that considers it worthwhile to pay a monthly fee to perpetually inhabit a world largely devoid of whimsy, color, cheer and beauty.
  • Second Life will languish until late in the year when it will be revitalized when Linden Labs announces that they will be opening up the server code and infrastructure to third parties. In the longer term Linden Labs will split the company into a software/infrastructure service provider and a very profitable customer service/marketing firm.
  • Metaplace will not gain significant traction until it partners with a social web games website (Kongregate, Newgrounds, etc) or a social networking website (Facebook, MySpace, etc).

  • The lack of notably successful new mmorpgs will be balanced out by no Vanguard-level launch disappointments as the industry becomes ever more polished and professional.

  • Free-to-play games will continue to gain market share in the US but the big news will be the success of Korean free-to-play games retooled for the US market.